Prediction Market Marketing That Moves at Event Speed

It is short-form distribution built around events that resolve. You hand over source material you already own — a founder interview, a market explainer, a livestream, a walkthrough of your app — and it gets cut into vertical clips. A network of 62,900+ real creator accounts then posts those clips to their own audiences on TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and X.

The important part is what it is not: it is not ad inventory. Creators post from their own accounts as ordinary content, so there is no ad account to certify, no ad review queue, and nothing for a policy team to approve before you can start. Clips are live within 24–72 hours of an approved brief — which is the whole reason the format fits this category, where attention appears the day an event moves and is gone once it settles.

You are billed per 1,000 verified views after delivery, not per upload and not upfront.

You might be able to — but only if you are a very specific kind of entity, and only in one country. Google’s Prediction Markets ads policy went live on 21 January 2026 and admits CFTC-designated contract markets and NFA-registered brokerages only, in the US, with Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio currently cut out — and it requires certification first.

Meta and TikTok never name the category at all, which means it gets judged under their gambling rules at their discretion. X barred gambling and financial-risk paid partnerships in February 2026.

So the honest word is gated, not banned — and even once you clear the gate, the sequence is certification, then ad review, then launch. That is a timeline measured in weeks against a market that resolves this week. Clipping sits outside ad inventory entirely, which is why it can start while the ad route is still in review.

General information on where marketing rules sit, not legal advice. Policy positions checked 10 August 2026.

Usually, yes — the standard is 24–72 hours from an approved brief to clips being live across all four platforms. Two things decide whether you land at the fast end of that or the slow end, and neither of them is us.

The first is source material: if footage already exists, cutting starts immediately. The second is the brief — the do-not-say list and your approval path have to be settled on day one. A campaign waiting on legal sign-off is not a distribution problem, and we would rather tell you that before you book than after.

If your event is inside 24 hours, say so on the call and you will get a straight yes or no. We would rather turn down a window we cannot hit than take the budget and deliver into an event that has already settled.

We do not publish a client list for this category, and we are not going to imply a relationship we do not have — a named venue on a marketing page is the first thing a regulated counterparty checks, and the first thing that costs you trust when it does not hold up.

What we can tell you is that the mechanism does not care about the venue. Whether you are a CFTC-designated exchange, a broker, or an on-chain protocol, the clips, the creator network and the reporting are the same. What changes is the brief: the do-not-say list, which jurisdictions your counsel will let you speak to, and whether you want a sign-off step on the first batch.

Ask on the call who we have run for and you will get whatever we are able to share under the NDAs we already have.

Real. Every view passes anti-bot verification before it is counted, and every live post link is reconciled against its own view count before you are billed. Bot farms and purchased view packages never reach the total, and removed or failed posts are excluded rather than invoiced. The metric you pay on is the metric you can audit, on a dashboard that stays with you after the campaign closes.

Disclosed. Every clip carries the platform’s own disclosure — TikTok’s commercial-content setting, Instagram’s paid-partnership label, YouTube’s paid-promotion tick, X’s paid-partnership label — and the creative is written against a do-not-say list: no odds stated as certainties, no guaranteed payout, no return promise.

One thing we will not tell you: that you carry no exposure. Under the FTC’s endorsement guides the disclosure duty is shared between the creator and the advertiser, so the advertiser is on the hook too. That is exactly why it is briefed and checked at review here, instead of being left with the creator to remember.

General information on where marketing rules sit, not legal advice. Your counsel sets the final lines and we put them in the brief.

It does not translate cleanly, and nobody in this category can make it. Accounts sit behind KYC, clips carry no cookie, and there is no clean line from a view to a funded account. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you a model and calling it a measurement.

What you actually get is every post link and every verified view count, timestamped and reconciled before billing. You lay the campaign window over your own sign-up, deposit and volume data and judge the relationship yourself, against numbers only you hold.

We will label it a correlation, not an attribution — in the report and on the invoice. It is a genuinely useful number. It is not proof, and we will not dress it up as proof.

Volume itself follows market conditions, listings and incentives. What distribution moves is who arrives, and how many of them arrive while the market is still open.

You are charged on a custom CPM — $2.50–$4.00 per 1,000 verified views, billed after delivery. Campaigns run $5,000–$200,000+, with a recommended minimum around $5,000. At $10,000 that is roughly 2.5–4.0 million verified views; the estimator further up the page will do any other budget for you.

Where you land inside the range depends on platform mix, how tight the event window is, and volume. There is no separate setup or platform fee on top.

The reason it is priced this way matters in this category specifically: a prediction-market account can sign up on event day and generate nothing until the market settles. Paying after delivery, on views that cleared verification, keeps the spend in the same shape as the revenue — unlike a KOL flat fee, which is agreed and paid before a single person has arrived.

Run your own budget through the estimator →